Welcome to NFL Spread Picks – Week 12.
Happy Thanksgiving to all!
Week 11 results: (9-6-1). Overall: (48-36-3).
One note to consider: in the past six weeks (83 games) the point total has gone over 31 times and under 51 times with 1 push. In other words the defenses have stepped up.
This is how I see week 12 playing out. Let’s roll!
Home teams in Bold.
Green Bay -6 vs. Detroit
Just when Detroit gives up 35 points to Cam Newton and the Panthers, in comes the Packer offense on a short week, look out! In contrast, the Packer defense is struggling, and the Lions just laid 49 points on Carolina. The score of this game could be in the 50’s. However, the Packers may be without the services of James Starks. Take Detroit +6 pts. I predict that both teams eat turkey the night before and their offenses take a nap from the tryptophan; (the chemical in turkey) yeah you heard me correctly. Both defenses step it up a notch. Take the under 55.5 pts.
Dallas -7 vs. Miami
What I love about Miami is they always play hard. Dallas will ‘ho-hum’ their way to a victory but won’t cover the spread. Take Miami +7 pts.
Baltimore -3 vs. SanFrancisco
Can a raven be eaten for Thanksgiving? The 49ers think so. They’ve already won four times this year in the eastern time zone, they simply travel well. Can Baltimore’s Ray Lewis get over his turf toe on such a short week? Not completely. Take San Francisco +3 pts. Both of these defenses are stingy. Take the under 39 pts.
Saint Louis -3 vs. Arizona
Too bad this isn’t the Thanksgiving Day afternoon game; cause we’ll all be napping anyway. S. Bradford returned last week for Saint Louis but it didn’t matter, lowly Seattle beat them by 17 points. Take Arizona +3 pts. Last week these two offenses combined for 14 points. Take the under 40.5 pts.
New York Jets -8 vs. Buffalo
The last three weeks the Bills have scored 11, 7 and 8 points respectively. The job gets even tougher against the Jets. Plus the Jets played last Thursday so they’re the more rested team. Take the New York Jets -8 pts.
Cincinnati -7.5 vs. Cleveland
Cincinnati will rebound after a tough loss to Baltimore last week. Andy Dalton is the real deal and should cover this spread with ease. In addition, the Bengal defense is solid. In ‘The Battle of the Buckeye State’, take Cincinnati -7.5 pts.
Houston -3 vs. Jacksonville
Houston received dreadful news about M. Schaub’s fractured foot just when they were about to become the AFC’s top team. Can Matt Leinert be a viable quarterback? I believe so, with Houston’s paramount run attack, plus the return of Andre Johnson. All Leinert has to do is manage the game. Houston has the league’s top defense and Jacksonville is dismal on offense. Take Houston -3 pts. Houston’s high octane offense is now sputtering on seven cylinders. Take the under 38 pts.
Carolina -3.5 vs. Indianapolis
Carolina’s defense is absolutely putrid. Detroit put 49 points on them last week. Good thing Indianapolis has no intention of winning. Cam Newton gets his third career win. Take Carolina -3.5 pts. And given the wretched defenses in this game, take the over 43.5 pts.
Tennessee -3 vs. Tampa Bay
Matt Hasselback sprained his elbow but should play. Tampa Bay put its best foot forward last week vs. Green Bay and still lost by 9 points, making them 4-6 this year. Expect a Buccaneer letdown along the lines of ‘Mutiny On the Bounty’. Take Tennessee -3 pts.
Atlanta -8.5 vs. Minnesota
The Viking secondary is like a beehive that’s been smoked: docile and nothing to worry about. Last week Adrian Peterson sprained an ankle in the first quarter and couldn’t return to the game. He’s more than likely out at least one week. Michael Turner of the Falcons on the other hand is like a bulldozer. Take Atlanta -8.5 pts.
Oakland -3.5 vs. Chicago
J. Cutler broke his thumb on his throwing hand. Back up quarterback Caleb Hanie leaves something to be desired. M. Forte is good but not when the defense puts eight in the box. Chicago needs a big defensive effort and I think they get it to cover the spread. Take Chicago +3.5 pts.
Seattle -4 vs. Washington
The matchup between Tarvaris Jackson and Rex Grossman should keep you glued to your seat, or rather, you should be glued to your seat to keep yourself from breaking your neck when you fall asleep, your butt slides off the chair and your head smacks against the hardwood floor. For some unknown reason, gut instinct I guess, I say take Washington +4 pts.
New England -4.5 vs. Philadelphia
Can V. Young spark the Eagles to another victory? Moving the sticks against New England shouldn’t be a problem. Receiver D. Jackson and his antics, who knows? Philadelphia has the offensive weapons to keep it close and they’re at home. Take Philadelphia +4.5 pts.
San Diego -6.5 vs. Denver
San Diego finally got off to a fast start this year going 4-1. After five straight losses they’re now 4-6. The Chargers remind me of the time I went camping and spent three miserable days in the rain trying to get a fire lit. Like the Spam I finally settled on, just stick a fork in them, they’re done. Take Denver +6.5 pts.
Pittsburgh -9.5 vs. Kansas City
B. Roethlisberger broke the thumb on his throwing hand but he plans to duct tape the digit and play anyway. The Steelers live up to their tough reputation, from the quarterback on down. I hope Kansas City quarterback Tyler Palko has a top-notch insurance plan. The only thing I’m apprehensive about is that the spread isn’t 18+ points. Take Pittsburgh -9.5 pts.
New Orleans -6.5 vs. New York Giants
The Saints scored 62 points vs. Indianapolis and the very next week they lost by 10 points to the substandard Rams. The Saints are much like the Chargers, (and camping in the Pacific Northwest), you always wonder if that fire is going to be there when you need it. The Giants are now tied with Dallas atop their division, so I know at least one team will be ready to play. Take the New York Giants +6.5 pts.
Best picks for week 12. Week 11 results: (7-5-1). Overall best picks record: (36-21-1).
Detroit +6 pts.
Miami +7 pts.
San Francisco +3 pts.
Arizona +3 pts.
Houston -3 pts.
Carolina -3.5 pts.
Atlanta -8.5 pts.
Pittsburgh -9.5 pts.
Green Bay and Detroit to go under 55.5 pts.
Baltimore and San Francisco to go under 39 pts.
Houston and Jacksonville to go under 38 pts.
Carolina and Indianapolis to go over 43.5 pts.
Saint Louis and Arizona to go under 40.5 pts.